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Affirm Holdings Inc. reports second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings after the market close Thursday, with investors eager to see whether a flurry of freshly announced partnership deals can fuel continued growth for the buy now, pay later leader.
Analysts expect Affirm to post earnings per share of $0.27 and revenue of $1.06 billion, representing sequential increases of roughly 16% and 14% respectively from the prior quarter’s $0.23 earnings and $933 million in revenue. The consensus rating stands at Buy, with 29 analysts assigning 22 Buy ratings, seven Hold ratings, and zero Sell ratings. The mean price target of $91.73 implies 47.6% upside from the current $62.16 share price.
EPS estimates have remained largely flat over the past week but declined slightly over the past 60 days, while revenue estimates have similarly held steady in recent days but edged down modestly over two months. The stability suggests analysts are awaiting this report to recalibrate expectations.
Recent analyst activity has turned bullish heading into the print. Morgan Stanley upgraded Affirm from Equalweight to Overweight on February 3, calling recent stock weakness an opportunity to own "arguably the best fintech asset" in its coverage. The timing comes as Affirm signed exclusive distribution deals to get its loans on Intuit’s QuickBooks Payments and Expedia’s platform, announced just days before earnings.
What Investors Are Watching
Distribution and partnership momentum will be critical. Analyst Andrew Jeffrey of William Blair noted that deals with Shop Pay, Amazon and Expedia have been key to Affirm’s long-term momentum, and he sees new deals driving "above-consensus 30%-plus fiscal 2026 GMV growth". The exclusive arrangements with QuickBooks and Expedia could significantly expand merchant access, but investors will watch for concrete signs these deals are translating to transaction volume.
Credit performance remains in focus. Traditional card issuers have reported stable credit trends recently, and analysts will scrutinize whether Affirm’s underwriting continues to perform. Separately, political debate around potential credit card interest rate caps has some analysts arguing BNPL could benefit if traditional credit becomes constrained, though the regulatory landscape remains uncertain.
Unit economics and the path to profitability will face scrutiny. Morgan Stanley noted that Affirm’s unit economics should improve as funding costs on new originations decline with lower rates, while yields on the existing fixed-rate loan book remain elevated. With the stock trading at a forward P/E of 19.51, investors want evidence that growth can translate to sustainable margins.
The prior quarter delivered an upside surprise, with Affirm beating EPS expectations by 109% and revenue forecasts by 5.8%. That performance helped fuel optimism, but competitive intensity has risen as major retailers reassess partnerships, illustrated by Walmart’s shift from Affirm to Klarna in 2025.
Today’s results will test whether Affirm can maintain its leadership position in a U.S. BNPL market forecast to grow at a 15.1% CAGR through 2031 while navigating intensifying competition from fintech rivals and traditional banks expanding installment offerings. The question is whether fresh partnerships and secular BNPL adoption can overcome mounting competitive pressures.
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