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Investing.com -- Barclays raised its rating on Danish offshore wind developer Ørsted to “equal weight” from “underweight” on Wednesday, with shares up over 2%, as it lifted its price target 37% to DKK 160 from DKK 117.
Shares traded at DKK 153, near a multi-year low after falling from a high of DKK 389.06 in March 2023 to a trough of DKK 59.19 in September 2025 before recovering.
The upgrade follows a DKK 60 billion rights issue in 2025 and an accelerated asset disposal programme that generated approximately DKK 46 billion in proceeds, surpassing the company’s DKK 35 billion target.
Disposals included a 50% stake in Hornsea 3 for DKK 10 billion and the sale of its European onshore business to Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners for DKK 10.7 billion in February 2026.
"Management have stabilised the balance sheet, rationalised the portfolio and prioritised returns over volume," Barclays analysts said.
Net debt fell sharply to DKK 3.99 billion in 2026 from DKK 18.98 billion in 2025, with net debt/EBITDA dropping to 0.1x. EBITDA is forecast to rise to DKK 29 billion in 2026 and DKK 33.77 billion in 2027, from DKK 25.07 billion in 2025.
Adjusted EPS is projected at DKK 9.00 in 2026 and DKK 10.79 in 2027, against DKK 1.95 in 2025, placing the stock at 17x and 14.2x earnings respectively, in line with the current sector average of 15x.
Barclays values Ørsted’s US offshore business at approximately DKK 30 billion proportional enterprise value, of which DKK 26 billion, or 87%, sits within Revolution Wind and Sunrise Wind, accounting for only DKK 20 per share, or 13% of the DKK 160 price target.
Revolution Wind recently delivered its first power. US lease suspension orders issued in December 2025 were successfully challenged, with injunctions granted to Revolution Wind on January 12 and Sunrise Wind on February 2. The appeal window for Revolution Wind has closed without a government response.
The UK offshore business accounts for over a third of Ørsted’s enterprise value, with operational and under-construction UK assets valued at DKK 61.23 billion.
Pipeline value stands at DKK 38 per share based on an 11 GW pipeline and an estimated ROIC-WACC spread of 200 basis points.
Barclays sees up to 6.5 GW of offshore wind auctions in 2026 across Denmark (1.8 GW), Belgium (700 MW), Taiwan (3.6 GW) and Australia (2 GW).
Hornsea 4, discontinued in May 2025, may return via a future auction or joint venture. "A second gas crisis in five years should support renewable policy, while an inflection on auction wins could underpin a recovery in growth >2030," Barclays said.
EPS growth is forecast to slow, with Barclays projecting a 6.6% CAGR from 2026 to 2030 versus a sector average of approximately 9%, before accelerating to an 11.5% CAGR from 2030 to 2035.
At a sector long-run exit multiple of 14.5x 2035 EPS, Barclays estimates an IRR of 9.5%, rising above 10% with new project wins.
Every 50 basis point increase in WACC reduces the valuation by approximately DKK 12.5 per share. The upside case is DKK 220 and the downside case DKK 110.